Sana'a - Saba:
Between Putin's expected response to the American offer and Ukraine's insistence on continuing the war, the outlook appears cloudy. This makes it difficult to accurately predict the future course of this war, both in terms of identifying the possibilities for cessation and the likelihood of continuation. However, what has become certain is that this war will no longer be the same as it was before.
The outcome of this war is certainly still unknown, but it does not seem difficult to predict in light of the American position, which appears to be intransigent toward stopping the war. However, the Russian position does not appear prescient; it knows its interests and is proceeding with coordinates that it knows well where they will lead. The goal is for the West to abandon its use of Ukraine as a center for threatening Moscow and for Kyiv to not join NATO. To achieve this, Zelensky and his extremist team must leave power.
In a position contrary to the approach of former President Joe Biden's administration, US President Donald Trump and his current administration are attempting to exert intensive efforts and exert tremendous pressure to end the war in Ukraine, even freezing all fronts and devoting themselves to China, according to analysts.
China has been believed to be the number (1) challenge to the United States for twenty years or more. This fact may be the basis for the assessment that American foreign policy will undergo a shift toward confronting China, which will require building new alliances, maintaining existing traditional alliances, and calming fronts and wars, such as those in the Middle East and Ukraine, according to analysts.
The confrontation with China is expected to take the form of a trade war and political and media skirmishes that are disturbing to China, such as Taiwan and issues of minorities, human rights, and public, political, and religious freedoms in China.
Last Friday, President Trump stated that Ukraine had accepted a ceasefire and that Russia could be persuaded as well.
Trump explained in a press statement that his country had very good talks with Russia and Ukraine, and that he had received good news in this regard.
He added, "Ukraine has accepted a ceasefire, and we can convince Russia, although it will be difficult. We are receiving good responses."
Trump criticized former US President Joe Biden over the war in Ukraine, saying, "He should never have gotten us involved with Russia. He should never have allowed this war."
Trump stated that approximately 2,000 young people are dying daily due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, and that all developments were heading toward a third world war.
On Tuesday, US-Ukrainian talks began in Saudi Arabia to discuss a ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow. The talks were chaired by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his Ukrainian counterpart, Andriy Sibiha.
Even before his inauguration, President Trump succeeded in raising concerns and fears among various parties, most notably Europe, whose leaders he repeatedly drew attention to the need to end the war in Ukraine and extend a hand of reconciliation to Russia. Trump reiterated his commitment to resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Between 2012 and 2022, the Russian-Ukrainian crisis escalated when Russia began amassing troops and military equipment near the border with Ukraine, sparking an international crisis and raising concerns about a potential Russian invasion of Ukrainian territory.
In December 2021, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced several demands, including Ukraine's non-accession to NATO and a reduction in the number of NATO troops and military equipment in Eastern Europe in exchange for the withdrawal of Russian forces.
Eastern Europe, the United States, and other NATO members rejected the Russian demand and warned Russia of tightening economic sanctions in the event of an invasion of Ukraine.
The war between Russia and Ukraine erupted on February 24, 2022, following a massive Russian military buildup in northern, eastern, and southern Ukraine after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the launch of what he called a "special military operation in Ukraine."
This war has caused global economic and political crises, and human losses that have yet to be fully accounted for, both civilian and military, on both sides, in addition to significant material losses for both sides and their Western backers, led by the United States.
Escalating Russian-Ukrainian Disagreements
In December 2008, Ukrainian authorities conducted an opinion poll in which 44.7% of the Ukrainian population voted in favor of joining the European Union, while 35.2% of those surveyed opposed it.
The results of the poll remained undisclosed after the presidential elections held on February 25, 2010, won by Viktor Yanukovych, a pro-Russian politician.
Under Yanukovych's presidency, Russia and Ukraine concluded a gas pricing deal in exchange for extending the Russian Navy's lease of a Ukrainian port on the Black Sea.
On November 13 of the same year, Yanukovych announced the suspension of trade and cooperation talks with the European Union and opted to revive economic relations with Moscow. This led to the outbreak of the Euromaidan protests, which rejected this decision and began in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.
Protests continued across Ukraine, and in parallel, the Ukrainian parliament voted to impeach President Yanukovych. The interim government issued an arrest warrant for the ousted president. Yanukovych fled to Russia in February 2014, calling his removal a "coup."
Russia responded by seizing control of the Ukrainian Crimean Peninsula in March 2014, seizing control of government buildings and the regional parliament. Just two weeks after the start of the Russian military takeover, a referendum on Crimea's status was held, with over 95% of voters voting in favor of joining the Russian Federation. Moscow then signed a treaty with Crimean leaders formally annexing the peninsula.
In April 2014, pro-Russian separatists seized control of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. Amid this tense atmosphere between the two countries, a presidential election was held in May 2014, won by Ukrainian businessman Petro Poroshenko, a pro-Western figure who said he would seek closer ties with the European Union and restore peace to Ukraine's troubled eastern regions.
As tensions between the two neighbors escalated, the West began to move to support Ukraine. In October 2014, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced sanctions against Russian and Ukrainian companies and individuals involved in the annexation of Crimea and the armed separatist movement in Donbas. A free trade agreement between Canada and Ukraine was signed in July 2016 and entered into force in August 2017.
An association agreement was signed between Ukraine and the European Union in September 2017, opening up markets for free trade, exchange of goods, services, and travel, with visa-free travel for Ukrainians.
In July 2019, Ukrainian representative Volodymyr Zelensky won the country's presidency by a landslide, six months after taking office, he appealed to US President Joe Biden to support Kyiv's accession to NATO.
Zelenskyy's appeal was followed by actions against the Russian-backed opposition in February 2021, with his government imposing sanctions on Viktor Medvedchuk, the opposition leader and a key Kremlin ally in Ukraine. Moscow took action on the ground in March 2021, mobilizing near the Ukrainian border and then withdrawing its forces, claiming the operation was merely a training exercise.
Ukraine gained independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and has since oscillated between seeking closer integration with Western Europe and falling into the orbit of Russia, which views a Western-leaning Ukraine as a threat to its interests.
It is the second-largest country in Europe by area and boasts vast, fertile agricultural plains and industrial regions with many heavy industries in the east.
Although Ukraine and Russia share common historical roots, the west of the country has closer ties with its European neighbors, particularly Poland, and nationalist sentiment is stronger there.
The coming days will undoubtedly be fraught with surprises in this war, and the outcome is now in Moscow's hands.
M.M
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